Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 17.731880 20.650072 23.847345 27.603504 31.888214 36.616125 42.220658
2024-10-13 13.444692 17.560512 22.542546 28.982201 37.046852 46.770725 59.336763
2024-10-20 10.165802 14.570629 20.345673 28.393672 39.227485 53.201716 72.467259
2024-10-27 7.744374 12.031919 18.052563 26.995370 39.782738 57.220049 82.561184
2024-11-03 6.894148 11.447432 18.210540 28.787876 44.659961 67.276465 101.529601
2024-11-10 6.360717 11.201182 18.754146 31.108472 50.433144 79.021805 123.859983
2024-11-17 5.499252 10.262436 18.062717 31.389495 53.085568 86.353011 140.287930
2024-11-24 4.668839 9.218076 17.023796 30.927590 54.438486 91.725708 154.082344
2024-12-01 3.915987 8.171083 15.811571 29.980310 54.826356 95.516157 165.588171
2024-12-08 3.417721 7.505887 15.160088 29.885763 56.573111 101.558813 181.088467
2024-12-15 3.035551 6.998448 14.716709 30.085864 58.805954 108.527931 198.577980
2024-12-22 2.501627 6.083770 13.367687 28.423688 57.502047 109.302953 205.559564
2024-12-29 2.279649 5.825003 13.325848 29.368325 61.293301 119.649509 230.616655
2025-01-05 2.123436 5.693249 13.541181 30.885019 66.399598 132.923705 262.207522
2025-01-12 1.813056 5.136537 12.769068 30.273218 67.283845 138.527885 280.375205
2025-01-19 1.491947 4.480535 11.666057 28.793340 66.228299 140.339132 291.591648
2025-01-26 1.431763 4.486933 12.081286 30.693876 72.353744 156.494368 331.259550
2025-02-02 1.405093 4.578846 12.711409 33.152893 79.898907 176.024824 378.851697
2025-02-09 1.262978 4.315463 12.429259 33.450619 82.769152 186.373429 409.089330
2025-02-16 1.101798 3.958807 11.852127 32.961291 83.823606 193.060858 432.443687
2025-02-23 0.941539 3.565222 11.110154 31.957640 83.578993 196.972978 450.358953
2025-03-02 0.837428 3.325920 10.745734 31.857457 85.421495 205.460962 478.365031
2025-03-09 0.756470 3.144487 10.513600 32.069484 88.025255 215.792812 510.973963